What's on the Braves' radar headed into 2019?

 

ATLANTA -- With 2019 upon us, let's take another look at what the Braves must do to increase the probability this new year might prove to be every bit as memorable as the last.

Finalize rotation plans
As the Braves continue to look for a front-line starter without any recent sense that they could land Corey Kluber, they must ask whether it would be worth taking a gamble on Sonny Gray or Madison Bumgarner, who may not be available before next summer. They may also be willing to react to the slim possibility Dallas Keuchel's market will crash.

But the most likely alternative to filling this need via trade would be to take a chance on the possibility Mike Foltynewicz can repeat his 2018 success and that Sean Newcomb is capable of matching the encouraging rise Foltynewicz experienced this past season. Kevin Gausman provides the rotation quality depth, and a healthy Mike Soroka stands as one of the many attractive options within a strong crop of starting pitching prospects.

Adding a starter might not be a necessity. But three months removed from sending Anibal Sanchez to the mound for Game 2 of the National League Division Series, the Braves certainly have reason to attempt to upgrade a rotation that currently does not stack up to the ones the Mets and Nationals will employ.

Find an outfielder
As the Mets and Nationals have upgraded their pitching staffs, Braves executives have questioned whether it's more important to react by prioritizing a valuable arm or another big bat. They weren't willing to pay what it cost to land Andrew McCutchen (Phillies) or Michael Brantley (Astros), and the fact Nicholas Castellanos ranks as one of the game's worst defensive outfielders dampens hopes of grouping him with Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson in the middle of the lineup.

Signing Nick Markakis or Carlos Gonzalez to a one-year deal seems more attractive than taking a chance on Adam Duvall bouncing back in 2019. But for now, the Braves are weighing all their options and getting a sense of whether it would be better to prioritize an arm or a bat.

Determine if a reliever is necessary
If Craig Kimbrel's market drops to the point where he is willing to accept a three-year deal, the Braves may entertain a reunion if they still have the funds necessary to pay the closer who will likely receive a yearly salary of at least $18 million. Concerns about Arodys Vizcaino's durability and questions about A.J. Minter's readiness leave the Braves approaching the upcoming season with doubt surrounding the closer's role.

But with Vizcaino, Minter, Darren O'Day and Chad Sobotka, Atlanta has a relief corps that will prove even stronger if Dan Winkler, Shane Carle and Jesse Biddle build on this past season's experience. Throw in the fact that Luiz Gohara or Max Fried may be valuable bullpen assets, and there's less of a rationale for spending just to spend in an expensive relief market.

Lineup arrangement
Braves manager Brian Snitker says he'll likely wait until the end of Spring Training to determine the structure of his lineup. But there's definitely something appealing about starting the lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr., Donaldson and Freeman. The void in the cleanup spot could be filled with the addition of the right outfielder. Snitker has also toyed with the possibility of dropping Acuna to the fourth spot and filling the leadoff spot with switch-hitting Ozzie Albies, who would have to prove more consistent from the left side, or Ender Inciarte, who would need to avoid last year's first-half struggles against left-handed pitchers.

While it's nice to project lineups, we're well past the era where stubbornness often led managers to stick with one set lineup. Switch-hitting Johan Camargo's new status as a super-utility player will offer Snitker a chance to rest his regulars more frequently and possibly more comfortably mix and match his lineup structure based on matchups.

Remain patient
Just because the Braves won a division title earlier than almost everyone expected doesn't mean they should wreck the path created during what proved to be a three-year rebuild. Yes, the goal should be to defend the 2019 NL East title, but not at the expense of the potential value that already exists for '20 and beyond. History has proven there's a risk to holding on to too many prospects for an extended period, but it can be even more detrimental to bid adieu to surplus long-term assets for a short-term gain.

In some ways, it feels like the time is right for the Braves to use their prospect and financial resources to strike a big deal. But if that big deal is not the right deal, you run the risk of looking at it 14 years later and wondering if winning that one additional division title with J.D. Drew was worth sacrificing possibly a decade-plus worth of Adam Wainwright's value.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Murphy's HOF case stronger with Baines in

 

ATLANTA -- Now that Alan Trammell and Harold Baines have been elected to the Hall of Fame via the Era Committee process, Dale Murphy certainly has more reason to look forward to next December, when he may finally receive the honor Braves fans have long felt he deserves.

Murphy will almost certainly be back on the Modern Era Committee's ballot that will be voted on during next year's Winter Meetings. The 16-member committee will be different than the one that elected Baines and Trammell the past two years. But their elections have seemingly strengthened the argument for Murphy, who proved to be better than these two Hall of Famers and most every other player during the 1980s.

Offensive stats
Trammell: .285/.352/.415, 185 HRs, .767 OPS, 110 OPS+
Baines: .289/.356/.465, 384 HRs, .820 OPS, 121 OPS+
Murphy: .265/.346/.469 , 398 HRs, .815 OPS, 121 OPS+

Comparing the power numbers and recognizing the similar on-base percentages, it's obvious Murphy and Baines were offensively superior to Trammell, a sure-handed shortstop whose Hall of Fame candidacy is strengthened by his 22.7 defensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement) per Baseball-Reference, which ranks 33rd in MLB history.

The park and league adjusted OPS figures verify just how comparable Murphy and Baines were from an offensive-production standpoint.

Awards
Having won the National League Most Valuable Player Award in 1982 and '83, Murphy stands with Roger Maris as the only players to win consecutive MVPs and not gain Hall of Fame enshrinement after becoming eligible. Murphy also finished within the top 10 in balloting for this award in '84 and '85.

Trammell never won an MVP, but he had three top 10 finishes (1984, '87 and '88). Baines had just one (ninth in 1985).

Murphy won five consecutive Gold Glove Awards (1982-86), and Trammell totaled four. Baines served as an outfielder throughout the 1980s and then spent the final decade of his career as a designated hitter (a role in which he tallied 58.9 percent of his career plate appearances).

Peak years
As Murphy hit .234 and produced a slightly below average 96 OPS+ over his final six seasons, he saw his Hall of Fame resume weaken, much like Andruw Jones' did after he turned 30. But some still regard Murphy as MLB's best player of the '80s.

From 1982-86, Murphy ranked 10th with a 25.3 fWAR (FanGraphs' WAR model). Eight of the nine players (Keith Hernandez being the exception) -- Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Gary Carter, Mike Schmidt, Tim Raines, Eddie Murray and Robin Yount -- are all in the Hall of Fame. Trammell ranked 11th during this span, and Baines ranked 44th.

Five-season spans do not make for a Hall of Fame career, so it's worth noting how these players ranked from 1981-90: Trammell sixth (48.9), Murphy 12th (43.8) and Baines 59th (28.1).

Longevity and the opportunity to primarily be a DH aided Baines as he tallied 184 homers and produced a 128 OPS+ from his age-31 season (1990) through 1999. Murphy tallied 132 homers and produced a 109 OPS+ from his age-31 season (1987) through his '93 retirement.

Committee influence
Much has been made of the fact the committee that elected Baines included his former team owner (Jerry Reinsdorf), his former manager (Tony La Russa), his former teammate (Roberto Alomar) and his former general manager (Pat Gillick). But it should be noted the committee that chose Trammell and Jack Morris instead of Murphy last year included three Braves figures: Bobby Cox, John Schuerholz and Don Sutton.

Time will tell whether next year's committee will choose to elect Murphy. But these past two elections have proven he has the credentials that some decision-makers deem Hall of Fame worthy.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Braves continue OF hunt with Brantley off board

 

ATLANTA -- Given they seem unwilling to make the long-term commitment Bryce Harper is seeking, the Braves had been evaluating Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley -- a pair of free agents who have since filled another team's need for an outfielder.

The Braves did not value McCutchen as highly as the Phillies, who gave the 32-year-old former National League MVP a three-year, $50 million deal. Nor did they have some of the same advantages as the Astros, who agreed to a two-year, $32 million deal with Brantley.

When financial terms of Brantley's deal were reported Monday night, some Braves fans questioned why their team did not make a similar or slightly more significant deal for the 31-year-old outfielder, who has played more than 90 games just once over the past three seasons.

Before getting too worked up about this development, it's important to remember that unlike Georgia, Texas does not levy a state income tax. So for Brantley, a $32 million deal with the Braves would have been less lucrative than the one he is set to gain from Houston.

Given Brantley's recent health history, the option to occasionally utilize him as a designated hitter also gives the Astros a comfort boost over the Braves.

Brantley finished third in balloting for the 2014 American League MVP Award, then returned from two injury-tarnished seasons to hit .309 with 17 homers and an .832 OPS over 631 plate appearances (143 games) for the Indians this year. He still has the ability to be a valuable asset.

But the stock for Brantley, who is six months shy of his 32nd birthday, is also influenced by his .684 OPS against left-handers this year and the fact he was limited to 101 games across the 2016-17 seasons.

The Braves have the financial means to match the average annual value given to McCutchen ($16.7 million) and Brantley ($16 million). But in relation to these two outfielders, there was a sense the Braves could gain better value by addressing each of their remaining needs: a front-line starter, bullpen depth and, of course, an outfielder.

Remaining funds
Although the Braves have not publicly indicated their projected 2019 payroll, they have said it will increase to the point they will no longer be in MLB's bottom third. Even after signing Josh Donaldson ($23 million) and Brian McCann ($2 million) to one-year deals, it's believed they still have at least $30 million left to spend.

When Braves chairman Terry McGuirk recently responded to Donaldson's signing by saying the team has the financial means to make another similar short-term investment, he glowingly spoke about general manager Alex Anthopoulos' long-term focus and desire to budget funds. This budgetary practice could lead Anthopoulos to allocate up to $10 million of his remaining funds toward moves that could be made to upgrade the roster during the 2019 season.

How much is available next summer will be determined by how much is spent this offseason. And how much is spent over the next few weeks and months will be dictated by the fluctuations of the trade and free-agent markets.

When asked if he has prioritized any of his remaining needs above another, Anthopoulos has said he is simply looking to find the best value. Now that the Yankees have a full rotation, some of their trade talks regarding Sonny Gray may be slightly different than they were over the previous few weeks. If Craig Kimbrel's market drops to a point where he would be willing to accept a three-year deal, the Braves would be among the teams that may suddenly come into play.

The Braves will also continue to monitor the markets for A.J. Pollock, Nick Markakis and Carlos Gonzalez. Having already declined Arizona's $17.9 million qualifying offer, Pollock is another recently injury-plagued outfielder who is seeking more than the Braves are willing to offer in years and dollars.

Markakis and Gonzalez would be less expensive, but both veterans appear to be short-term fallback options who may be targeted by Atlanta once Anthopoulos gets a better feel for how market changes will affect his other pursuits.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Happy Birthday Ronald!

 

Happy 21st Birthday to Atlanta's phenom, Ronald Acuna, Jr!

Source: Atlanta out on trading for Realmuto

MIAMI -- While Atlanta has continued to be linked to J.T. Realmuto rumors, a source said Saturday night the Braves exited the Winter Meetings with the understanding there will not be any further reason for them to discuss trading for the Marlins' All-Star catcher.

Though the Braves signed Brian McCann in November, they continued to monitor Realmuto's market just to get a sense of what it might eventually take to land the coveted catcher. But the source indicated the Braves and Marlins have not had any discussions since Tuesday, which was the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos voluntarily chose to attend Liberty Media budget meetings in Denver on Wednesday. The meetings had been scheduled for more than a month and Anthopoulos went to the Winter Meetings with the assumption he would make an early exit from the four-day event. But he would have likely stayed in Las Vegas had he been involved in serious negotiations regarding Realmuto or any other potential target.

The Braves pursued Realmuto last offseason, before this year's Trade Deadline and at the beginning of this offseason. But once the Marlins asked for Ozzie Albies and made it clear they would need at least one high-value MLB-experienced asset in return, the Braves moved forward by signing McCann to a one-year, $2 million deal.

Because of the small financial commitment attached to McCann's deal, the Braves have some wiggle room to alter their current plan to open the season with Tyler Flowers and McCann serving as their catching duo.

With the division rival Mets standing as one of the teams making a strong push for Realmuto, it made sense for the Braves to at least continue to monitor whether they could eventually strike a deal with a package that included some of the top prospects from their talent-filled farm system.

The Braves have the capability of providing a rich, prospect-laden offer. But for now, it appears they have turned their attention away from Realmuto.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Braves remain patient as Meetings end

LAS VEGAS -- As the Braves exited this year's Winter Meetings without adding to the flurry of significant moves being made within the National League East, they remained committed to avoiding overpay risk associated with doing a deal just to do a deal.

"I think the biggest mistake we could make is to try to force a deal to sign somebody to three, four or five years that we like, but we don't love," Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos said.

In terms of what the Braves are evaluating on the free-agent market, this comment applies to the current cost it would take to acquire outfielders Michael Brantley or A.J. Pollock. But this line of thinking also extends to the hesitance to dig too deep into a talent-rich farm system to satisfy what the Indians want for either of their two potentially available starting pitchers -- Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer -- or what the Yankees have previously wanted for Sonny Gray.

"The landscape is going to constantly change and we have to be careful not to lock ourselves into something we're not excited about," Anthopoulos said.

With the Yankees nearing the completion of a deal with J.A. Happ, Gray now officially becomes the odd man out in New York's rotation. So Anthopoulos may find a different tone within future conversations shared with Yankees GM Brian Cashman. As time passes, the asking price for Kluber, Bauer and possibly even J.T. Realmuto could drop.

While the Braves have continued to monitor Realmuto's market, they have not viewed him as a priority target since signing Brian McCann to team with Tyler Flowers as their 2019 catching duo. Thoughts of Realmuto landing in Atlanta will remain on life support as long as the Marlins remain insistent on the inclusion of a Major League-ready player at the caliber of Ozzie Albies.

BIGGEST REMAINING NEEDS

1. Front-line starter: Gray was a bust in the Bronx, but the 2.84 ERA produced in 18 road starts while wearing pinstripes strengthens the argument he might just need a change of scenery. It seems unlikely Kluber will be dealt and it must be remembered Bauer never posted a sub-4.00 ERA before this year. Madison Bumgarner likely won't be dealt this winter, and the Braves have never shown interest in the cost it would take to sign Dallas Keuchel or acquire Zack Greinke from the D-backs.

2. Outfielder: The Braves had interest in Andrew McCutchen, but they weren't interested enough to provide the three-year, $50 million deal the former NL MVP got from the Phillies. They like Brantley, but are not interested in providing more than a two-year commitment to a guy who has played more than 90 games just once over the past three seasons. Nicholas Castellanos' bat is intriguing, but Ender Inciarte's tremendous range is not enough to offset the defensive inefficiencies of Castellanos, who ranks as the game's worst outfielder per Statcast's Outs Above Average metric.

3. Bullpen: Of the three remaining primary targets, adding a reliever is the one that can best qualify as more of a wish than a need. Edwin Diaz, who was traded from the Mariners to the Mets, was the primary target to fill a closer's role that may now be handled by Arodys Vizcaino or A.J. Minter. The Braves would like to add a quality setup option, but they may have to rely on the possibility that Luiz Gohara or one of their other top young starting-pitching prospects becomes a valuable bullpen asset.

RULE 5 DRAFT

The Braves chose not to make a selection in the Major League phase of Thursday's Rule 5 Draft. They added to their organizational depth by making these selections in the Triple-A phase: righty Jason Creasy (D-backs), righty Jose Rafael De Paula (Reds) and shortstop Riley Unroe (Angels).

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Snitker: New additions, youth will boost Braves

 

ATLANTA -- As Braves manager Brian Snitker savored the memories from his team's unexpected postseason run this year, he also envisioned what has occurred over the past few weeks, as the Mets, Phillies and Nationals have all improved their bid to win the 2019 National League East title.

"Teams are going to continue to get better. That's the nature of the beast that we're in," said Snitker. "And we're going to have to continue that, too. The work is just beginning for us. I don't feel we're a finished product at the Major League level. Our players are not finished products yet."

Since producing the NL East's best record over the season's final three months, the Mets have added Robinson Cano and fortified their bullpen with Edwin Diaz. The Phillies are primed to build on their additions, which include Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura, who should help shape a defensive reformation. The Nationals' bid to bounce back from a disappointing season has been enriched by the addition of Patrick Corbin, who joins Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in the starting rotation.

The Braves have been quiet since signing Brian McCann and Josh Donaldson, who will team with Freddie Freeman to give Atlanta two legit NL MVP Award candidates. More moves will be made to strengthen the rotation and fill an outfield void. But Snitker believes the experience Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and other young players gained in 2018 will be the foundation of his team's bid to defend its division title.

"We talked about [winning the division] last year, but it was just kind of talk," Snitker said. "Now it's kind of like we've experienced it and we know where we want to get and what we want to do."

Lineup
Snitker is intrigued by the idea of starting his lineup with Acuna, Donaldson and Freeman. But before making a decision, he'll see which outfielder is acquired and get a better feel for whether it's best to keep Acuna in the leadoff role or drop him to the cleanup spot.

"I'm going to wait until I get down [to Spring Training] the first of February and see who we've got," Snitker said. "I play with it all the time. That's what managers do. They sit at home and doodle, you go out to dinner and you're writing on a napkin and things like that. And we envision it.

"It might be something we play with over the entire spring. I don't think we're going to -- when we open the Grapefruit [League] season, I don't think I'm going to have a lineup that's set yet."

Albies factor
Blessed with power and speed, Albies has the tools to be a leadoff hitter. But as the young switch-hitter struggled from the left side and hit .226 with a .282 on-base percentage after the All-Star break, he showed that he did not yet have the plate discipline or experience to fill the role.

Depth leads to rest
After Albies earned an All-Star selection with his first-half credentials, he said that fatigue did not influence his second-half decline. But in a conversation with general manager Alex Anthopoulos after the season, the 21-year-old second baseman admitted that he started to wear down near the end of his first full Major League campaign.

With Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson available as super utility players, Snitker will have the bench depth necessary to fulfill Anthopoulos' wish that the everyday players get regular rest. In other words, the days of Freeman aiming to play all 162 games are over.

"I don't think we need anybody to play 162 [games]," Snitker said. "Because there's been a lot of talk about how so and so slacked off. I'm the reason why. I'm the one that played their legs off. But with that being said, I felt like that's what we had to do to get where we wanted to go."

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.