Braves face tough arbitration-eligible decisions

 

 ATLANTA -- The Braves' search for a closer will not be influenced by whether they opt to tender Arodys Vizcaino a contract before Friday night's deadline.

All Major League teams have until Friday at 8 p.m. ET to decide which of their arbitration-eligible players will be tendered a contract. Adam Duvall appears to be the Braves' most likely non-tender candidate, but Vizcaino might be the most intriguing.

The Braves have eight arbitration-eligible players -- Duvall, Vizcaino, Jonny Venters, Kevin Gausman, Mike Foltynewicz, Sam Freeman, Dan Winkler and Charlie Culberson. Players tendered a contract will become eligible to have their 2019 salary determined by the arbitration process. Those not tendered a contract immediately become a free agent.

There could be some movement on the trade front as teams attempt to at least gain some value for fringe-tender candidates like Vizcaino, whose troublesome right shoulder has created understandable doubt about his durability.

Potential non-tenders: Duvall and Vizcaino
When Vizcaino converted 14 of 17 save opportunities and posted a 2.83 ERA over 57 1/3 innings in 2017, it marked the only time he exceeded 40 innings in his career. Right shoulder discomfort limited him to 38 1/3 innings in 2018, just 8 2/3 innings after June 17. September's expanded roster and the postseason schedule allowed the Braves to use him without having to deal with the potential effects of him pitching on consecutive days. MLB Trade Rumors projects the 28-year-old reliever could make $4.8 million via arbitration. That cost might stand as a gamble the Braves aren't willing to take.

Duvall was acquired from the Reds in exchange for two pitchers (Lucas Sims and Matt Wisler) who were no longer fits in Atlanta and an outfielder (Preston Tucker) who ended up back with the Braves in September. In other words, Cincinnati wasn't likely surprised when Duvall hit .132 and tallied just one extra-base hit (a double) in 53 at-bats with Atlanta.

Given Duvall hit .249 when he recorded a second straight 30-homer season in 2017 and Atlanta's system is void of MLB-ready outfield prospects, there might be reason to think about rolling the dice on the 30-year-old outfielder. But the $3.1 million MLBTR projects him to receive might also be spent more wisely to fill other needs or acquire an outfielder capable of providing greater value at a lesser cost.

Locks to be tendered: Gausman, Foltynewicz and Culberson

Not quite a lock: Venters, Winkler and Freeman
Venters was named National League Comeback Player of the Year in 2018, when he returned to the Majors for the first time since 2012 and posted a 3.67 ERA over 34 1/3 innings for the Rays and Braves. The late-July return to the Braves organization enhanced the feel-good story for the 33-year-old southpaw, who has battled back from 3 1/2 Tommy John surgeries. Many Braves fans would be outraged if the reliever doesn't return. But at this point, it doesn't seem he's a lock to be tendered a contract.

Winkler was one of the game's top relievers early in 2018, posting a 0.74 ERA and limiting opponents to a .200 on-base percentage through June 3 (26 appearances and 24 1/3 innings). But the 28-year-old right-hander fatigued as he totaled 69 appearances during his first full Major League season. He posted a 5.25 ERA and allowed opponents to produce a .360 OBP over his final 43 appearances last season. Durability is a concern for this reliever, who has battled back from two major elbow surgeries. But his cost might be minimal enough for the Braves to take a chance on his promising upside.

Freeman overcame his control issues during a strong 2017 season and then encountered them again throughout much of this past summer. He was more effective after returning from a disabled list stint in August, but the Braves still opted to keep him off their postseason roster.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Braves' chairman opens door to more deals

 

 ATLANTA -- As Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos was reiterating his hesitance to make a long-term commitment to players available via trade or free agency, team chairman Terry McGuirk stood across the room and said the club still has the financial flexibility necessary to make another significant short-term commitment, similar to the one already made to Josh Donaldson.

"This is our moment," McGuirk said. "This is a time where we would be nuts not to be touching all the buttons. With the kind of youth we have coming up, with the ability we have to fill some holes, with the revenue growth and the current excitement, you couldn't find all the pieces all fitting together any better if you had written a script. I'm an optimist, but it's hard to be optimistic enough about some of this stuff."

McGuirk has repeatedly showered praise upon Anthopoulos, who jump-started the offseason by committing $25 million via the one-year deals given this week to Donaldson ($23 million) and Brian McCann ($2 million). The Braves have at least $30 million available to address their need for an outfielder and their wishes to fortify their rotation, bullpen and bench.

"It's sort of like we're walking out on a pier," McGuirk said. "With every step, we evaluate and say, 'What will it take to get to the next step?' But we have a lot of capacity. You've got to use it correctly. We're not the Yankees or the Dodgers. We can't waste money. I think we went into this offseason saying, 'There's nobody who can outplay us in this offseason.' Even with [Phillies managing partner John Middleton] making the comment about [spending] 'stupid money', those were intimidating factors to teams that don't have this much money. But we're not intimidated by that."

This is not to say Atlanta should be considered a potential suitor for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Anthopoulos has repeatedly made it clear he's not shopping down that aisle. But he does have the monetary means and the high-quality prospect pool necessary to make at least one more significant transaction via free agency or more likely via the trade market.

"If we can add a starter and have that much more depth, great," Anthopoulos said. "A reliever we'd love to add as well. We'd like to add to the bench. Even if we get a starting outfielder, we still have some other things we can do. I don't know if we'll be able to achieve all of it. You want to build a team that can put you in a position that you're contending come July. Then with those final pieces, you can plug those holes. We just have to be smart about how we spend our money and how we trade our prospect capital and so on. As much as we need to fill spots, we're not going to do a deal just to do a deal."

Anthopoulos' comment about plugging holes is important, as it reinforces his desire to always have some money set aside to have the financial means necessary to make pivotal midseason trades. So with this in mind, we should expect him to allocate approximately $10 million of his available funds to be used during the 2019 season.

But as McGuirk said, finances should not deter Anthopoulos from satisfying his desire to make responsible attempts to satisfy his offseason shopping endeavors.

Here's a look at the Braves' remaining needs and wants:

Starting pitcher
The Braves have Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran penciled in to fill the first four spots of their rotation. Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Touki Toussaint lead the list of fifth-starter candidates. While there's hope Newcomb will make a rise similar to the one Foltynewicz made this year, Atlanta needs another front-line starter to legitimize its goal to become World Series contenders. Anthopoulos has indicated he is not comfortable with the cost to acquire or sign a starting pitcher with more than a couple years of remaining control. But there's at least one free agent who has continued to draw his interest

Potential fits: Some evaluators have ticked Patrick Corbin to land with the Yankees, and others have said the Phillies will likely make the largest offer to the free-agent left-hander. But the Braves have continued to express interest in Corbin, who finished fifth in balloting for this year's National League Cy Young Award. The Indians may be willing to move Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer if they are able to get the kind of return the Braves are capable of providing. Carrasco is the most affordable ($9 million in 2019 and a $9.5 million option for '20) member of this trio. Early indications are Atlanta would have to deal Cristian Pache, Kyle Wright and Toussaint for three years of Kluber. That's not going to happen.

Madison Bumgarner will make an affordable $12 million as he enters the final year of his contract, and he certainly could be a positive influence on some of the young starters. But he's no longer the same MadBum who used to rule Octobers. So for now, he should be considered a secondary option.

Bullpen
There is a chance Arodys Vizcaino will be non-tendered before Friday's 8 p.m. ET deadline. Even if he isn't, the Braves have a legit reason to worry about him proving durable enough to be their closer throughout the 2019 season.

While there is an obvious connection to Craig Kimbrel, the Braves have made it clear he won't be joining McCann on a reunion tour. Zach Britton seems to be the more likely free agent to possibly end up with Atlanta.

The Braves are also among the many teams who have inquired about Edwin Diaz, who arguably stands as the Mariners' best trade chip. Adam Ottavino will not be as expensive as Kimbrel, but the publicity he's received as a free agent has likely made him more expensive than envisioned.

Outfielder
With the addition of Donaldson's power potential, the Braves can widen their search for an outfielder. They've shown some interest in Michael Brantley, and they have perused the trade market looking for someone to replace Nick Markakis.

But they also haven't closed the door on re-signing Markakis, who will get a feel for his free-agent market before deciding whether he wants to return to Atlanta with a contract that would likely include less than three guaranteed seasons.

"Nick was awesome for us last year," Anthopoulos said. "I think he'd complement this team and fit this lineup great right now with how we're set up. We've maintained contact and we've maintained dialogue. I just have no idea what the outcome will be."

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.