Statcast trends that could affect Braves' 2019

 

ATLANTA -- Looking ahead toward the 2019 season, here are some Statcast trends and metrics that could influence how the Braves round out their roster and ultimately fare in their attempt to defend their National League East crown.

Freddie Freeman's power
The Braves have gambled $23 million on the belief Josh Donaldson will be healthy enough to compete with Freeman and the handful of other legitimate NL MVP Award candidates. But there's also reason to wonder if Freeman will regain the power he possessed before his left wrist was fractured on May 17, 2017.

Freeman has repeatedly said his wrist is fine, and he backed this up by arguably standing as the leading candidate for the NL MVP Award through the first two weeks of August. But when looking at exit velocities and barreled balls percentages, there is a noticeable difference between his before and after numbers.

Barreled balls event percentage:
2018: 9.3 (25th of 97 MLB players with 400 batted ball events)
2017: 13.3 (10th of 182 w/300 BBE)
2016: 13.7 (sixth of 108 w/400 BBE)
2015: 11.3 (16th of 199 w/300 BBE)

Freeman's 2015 right wrist ailment limited him to 118 games, which was one more than he played in '17, when his left wrist was fractured by a pitch.

The best span of Freeman's career stretched from June 15, 2016-May 17, 2017. Within this season-equivalent (587 plate appearances) period, he hit .339 with 38 homers, a 1.127 OPS and 189 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). His average exit velocity was 91.6 mph, and he barreled 16.6 percent of balls in play.

While hitting .303 with a .892 OPS and 133 wRC+ since returning from the wrist fracture, Freeman's average exit velocity has been 89.1 mph, with 9.5 percent of balls in play being barreled.
Freeman earned a third-place finish in this year's NL MVP Award balloting, and his production solidified his status among the game's best. But after hitting .342 with 15 homers and a 1.031 OPS through his first 69 games, he batted .285 with eight homers and a .788 OPS over his final 93 games.
Maybe a winter's worth of rest -- or more importantly, the plan to rest more frequently next season -- will prove beneficial. Maybe being paired alongside Donaldson will prove beneficial, though last year Freeman did see more in-zone pitches than he had in any of the previous three seasons. Nevertheless, while dealing with multiple wrist ailments over the past few years, it's noteworthy to account for the recent decline in exit velocity and barrel percentage.

Inciarte's range
The Braves have made it clear they value on-base skills and defensive value in their search for an outfielder. This has at least lessened the possibility of them trading for the Tigers' Nicholas Castellanos. But Ender Inciarte's presence would at least make this a more comfortable gamble.

Before looking at why Inciarte would qualify as a first-ballot Statcast Hall of Famer, let's look at Baseball Savant's definition of Outs Above Average (OAA) -- the cumulative effect of all individual catch probability plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric of fielding skill that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. For example, a fielder who executes a 25 percent catch probability play gets +.75; one who unable to make the play gets -.25.

Inciarte leads all MLB outfielders with 66 OAA over the past three seasons. Billy Hamilton ranks second with 52. The only other two with as many as 40 are Lorenzo Cain (47) and Mookie Betts (46).

Defensive decline is inevitable, but Inciarte did not show any apparent signs as he tied Cardinals rookie Harrison Bader for an MLB-high 21 OAA in 2018.

Inciarte's great range allowed the Braves to completely alter Markakis' average starting spot by playing him deeper and closer to the right-field line. Markakis went from -5 OAA (59th of 71 with at least 200 opportunities) in 2017 to 0 OAA (39th of 75) and a Gold Glove in '18.
Saying Inciarte could similarly influence Castellanos would be the equivalent of saying Ozzie Albies' range allows for the option of using Brian McCann at shortstop. But while Castellanos might still be the game's worst defensive outfielder, Inciarte's presence would at least make him less of a detriment.

Will Folty build on 2018?
When accounting for whether the Braves need to add a top-flight pitcher, you can question whether Sean Newcomb is capable of making a rise similar to the one Mike Foltynewicz experienced last season. But it may be even more important to account for the possibility Foltynewicz takes a step back in 2019.

Foltynewicz posted a 2.02 ERA through his first 16 starts and then extended a maddening first-half trend by experiencing one ugly inning in each of his final two starts before the All-Star break. He concluded July with two so-so starts before compiling a 2.55 ERA over his remaining 11 starts.

Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) provides a better indication of a player's skill because unlike wOBA, it erases defense from the equation by accounting for launch angle and exit velocities of balls in play. Foltynewicz finished eighth among NL pitchers with a .274 xwOBA, an .009 difference from his .265 wOBA, which ranked fifth in the NL.

When Foltynewicz established himself through those first 16 starts, he recorded 10.82 strikeouts per nine innings and issued 4.04 walks per nine innings. His .261 wOBA was better than his .276 xwOBA. During his impressive 11-start stretch to end the season, he had a 9.76 K/9, a 3.44 BB/9, a .232 wOBA and a .257 xwOBA.

If solely looking at the xwOBA metrics, there is reason to project a slight decline. But if solely looking at the numbers and ignoring human elements like experience, then you likely wouldn't have guessed Foltynewicz would have gone from having a .339 xwOBA in 2017 to becoming an All-Star in '18.

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.

Braves dismiss scouting director, advisor

 

ATLANTA -- After establishing himself as one of John Schuerholz's most valuable amateur scouts during the 1990s, Roy Clark mentored Brian Bridges, a man whose fingerprints will be linked to what could be the Braves' next stretch of success.

Unfortunately for Bridges and Clark, they won't be around to reap the rewards of the efforts they made while running the Braves' amateur scouting department during the organization's recent rebuild.

Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos confirmed he dismissed Bridges (director of scouting) and Clark (senior advisor) from their respective positions on Wednesday. The decision comes approximately three months after both signed a one-year extension through the 2019 season.

"The plan was for them to be here," Anthopoulos said. "The more I thought about it over the holidays, I decided I wanted to make this change. It's not fair to have them work and prepare for this year's [MLB Draft] and then cut them loose after the Draft."

Bridges was in the Atlanta airport when he received the news Wednesday afternoon. Other than expressing his love for the Braves and his many friends throughout the organization, he chose not to immediately comment on the decision.

"I'm heartbroken," the Georgia native said. "There aren't too many times you get a chance to work for the team you grew up following and have the opportunity to be around the quality of people the Braves possess. I never played in the big leagues. But I worked for a big league organization that had big league people. I wish the Braves nothing but the best."

Anthopoulos said the decision was not directly linked to last year's MLB investigation of amateur draft improprieties made under the previous front-office regime. He also indicated his decision was not influenced by the Braves not signing last year's first-round pick, Carter Stewart, a left-handed high school pitcher whose wrist became a medical concern after he was taken with the eighth overall pick.

While Anthopoulos was highly complimentary of both men, he spent much more time with Bridges, who joined the Braves in 2007 and became the scouting director after the '14 season, when John Coppolella and John Hart began running Atlanta's baseball operations department.

Bridges played an instrumental role in the selection of Jason Heyward and is credited with the signings of Craig Kimbrel, Alex Wood and Mike Minor. He has run each of Atlanta's past four Drafts. His first year as the scouting director was 2015, when the Braves took Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Austin Riley, Lucas Herbert and A.J. Minter.

"[Bridges] is a pro and a great human being," Anthopoulos said. "As an evaluator and a scout, he's one of the best I've ever been around."

Unfortunately for the Braves, the timing leaves them without two of the game's best scouts, just five months before they are slated to have the ninth and 21st overall picks in this year's Draft.

Clark made his mark on the Braves' organization throughout the 1990s and remained with the club through 2009. He then had stints with the Nationals and Dodgers before Coppolella and Hart lured him back to Atlanta to serve as a special assistant to the GM after the '14 season.

Clark maintained that title until the latter portion of 2017, when Coppolella demoted him to the role of special advisor. This seemed to be in response to a disagreement over the '17 Draft in which Clark and Bridges had lobbied for Austin Beck, while Coppolella wanted Keston Hiura taken with the fifth-overall selection.

Once Draft day unfolded, the Braves took advantage of the unexpected chance to take Kyle Wright. Still, while those pre-Draft discussions had lingering effects, they never weakened the indelible bond Bridges shares with Clark.

"He's why I am where I am today," Bridges said. "He influenced my life and many other lives of people from the Braves organization. I am thankful for all he has done for me. He gave me a chance to experience what was my dream job."

Mark Bowman has covered the Braves for MLB.com since 2001.